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May 2023 Market Update Article

Market Activity Article from MarketWatch

Published and Reprinted here: 05/18/2023

The information and opinions expressed in this article are those of the article author and MarketWatch Group and are the sole property of MarketWatch Group and the article author. We have reprinted the article here for sharing industry information only.<script

The numbers: Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell 3.4% in April for the second month in a row, as buyers continue to deal with low levels of home listings and see-sawing mortgage rates.

Sales of existing homes in the U.S. fell to an annual rate of 4.28 million in April, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That’s the number of homes that would be sold over an entire year if sales took place at the same rate in every month as it did in April. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.

The drop in sales wasn’t as bad as what economists on Wall Street had expected. They forecasted existing-home sales to total 4.26 million in April. But compared with April 2022, home sales were down 23.2%.

Key details: The median price for an existing home fell by 1.7% from last April to $388,800 this year. The drop is the largest since January 2012, when home prices fell 2%. Home prices peaked in May 2021, where they grew 25.2% annually. The number of homes on the market rose by 7.2% in April to 1.04 million units. But the number of fresh listings is still down from a year ago, the National Association of Realtors said.

Homes listed for sale remained on the market for 22 days on average, down from 29 days in March.

Sales of existing homes fell in all regions, with the sharpest drop in the West. All-cash buyers made up 28% of sales. The share of individual investors or second-home buyers was 17%. About 29% of homes were sold to first-time home buyers.

Big picture: Despite home sales dipping in April, most of the housing data is indicating that the U.S. housing market is in broad recovery.But a combination of issues are making it a slow one, from a lack of new home listings to see-sawing mortgage rates.

Many homeowners are reluctant to sell for two reasons: They may be reluctant to give up an ultra-low mortgage rate secured during the pandemic for a much higher one, and they also don’t want to deal with competition

Homebuilders are responding to the inventory crunch by bumping up construction of new homes. Housing starts, which refer to when a builder starts constructing a home, rose in April. Rates, on the other hand, are volatile: The 30-year mortgage rose to the highest level in two months to 6.57% as of May 12, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. It was 6.48% the previous week.

Given the underlying issues on supply and rates, sentiment among U.S. consumers regarding the housing market has worsened: The number of people who think it’s a bad time to buy a home has hit a 45-year high.

What the realtors said: “The housing market–at least home sales–is still struggling to recover,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said.

Aside from higher rates, “there’s just simply not enough inventory,” he noted.

Yun also said that the NAR was sharing the idea of addressing the capital gains tax with members of Congress as a way to encourage more homeowners to sell their homes to ease the inventory shortage.

What are they saying? “The very strong underwriting standards during the last housing expansion along with solid labor market conditions will reduce the risk of defaults and forced selling going forward,” Thomas Simons, U.S. economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note.

“The housing sector is already in a recession, but we don’t expect consumption to contract significantly until a cycle of mass layoffs begins, likely during Q3,” he added.

Market reaction: Stocks were up in early trading on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year note rose above 3.6%.

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Housing Market Predictions For 2023: When Will Home Prices Be Affordable Again?

Forbes Article By: Robin Rothstein : Forbes Advisor Staff

Published and Reprinted 05/18/2023

The opinions and information presented here are those of the article author and Forbes and are the sole property of Forbes and their Staff. We have reprinted the article here for sharing industry information only.

It’s May, but the spring homebuying season has yet to bloom—and it may turn out to be a total dud

Mortgage rates increased 15 basis points in April, while pending and existing home sales slumped in March. Though the median existing-home sales price edged lower year-over-year for the second consecutive month—a promising sign for home shoppers—substantial, nationwide price declines are likely not in the cards.

Tight inventory issues continue to keep prices high, perpetuating affordability challenges for many, especially first-time homebuyers. For one, the nation’s housing supply remains limited—and probably will remain so for at least the near future—due, in part, to those who purchased homes in recent years at record-low interest rates staying put.

Though home prices are not as eye-popping as in early 2022, how much further home prices dip in 2023 will depend on the housing market region and where mortgage rates go.

As we move through spring homebuying season, buyers and sellers remain at a standoff.

Persistently high mortgage rates and home prices continue to put off many prospective homebuyers as fears of ongoing inflation, bank sector volatility, weakening economic growth and an impending recession hang in the air.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve voted to raise its key interest rate by one quarter of a percentage point on May 3, a move in line with most housing experts’ predictions. The Fed also signaled that it may pause rate hikes for the remainder of the year should inflation continue to fall. A Fed rate hike has an indirect impact on long-term home loans, such as 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

These circumstances have put a strain on the housing market, which remains a mixed bag.

On the one hand, home shoppers received good news, with the median existing-home sales price declining 0.9% to $375,700 in March compared to a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is the second consecutive month of year-over-year home price declines after a 131-month streak of record increases.

On the other hand, total existing-home sales dipped 2.4% from February to March and are down 22% from a year ago, per NAR.

“Home sales are trying to recover and are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in a report. “Yet, at the same time, multiple offers on starter homes are quite common, implying more supply is needed to fully satisfy demand. It’s a unique housing market.”

Some Experts Foresee a Sluggish Housing Market Recovery

Following several weeks of declines in March and early April, mortgage rates edged higher in recent weeks, reaching 6.43% the week ending April 27, according to Freddie Mac. Rates have remained steady throughout May, most recently finishing at 6.39% the week ending May 18.

“If current economic conditions persist, with elevated mortgage rates and home prices amid scarce inventory, the market is likely in for a long, slow climb and a few bumps along the way,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in an emailed statement.

One of those bumps includes the new mortgage fee rules imposed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Beginning May 1, conventional mortgage borrowers who place between 5% and 25% down will pay more in fees—also known as loan-level price adjustments (LLPAs)—than those who put down less than 5%.

Though the Biden-Harris administration revamped the existing mortgage fee rules to make homeownership “more attainable and affordable for more low- and middle-income borrowers” the change has drawn criticism from some housing experts as the higher fees will hit people considered less risky.

While it remains to be seen how the mortgage fee changes will affect home shoppers, mortgage application activity at the moment remains low.

“Both conventional and government home purchase applications increased last week. However, activity was still nearly 28% below last year’s pace,” said Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at Mortgage Bankers Association.

Even so, some experts predict a slow recovery may soon be underway.

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased modestly for the second straight week, but with the rate of inflation decelerating rates should gently decline over the course of 2023,” said Sam Khater, chief economist, in a press statement. “The prospect of lower mortgage rates for the remainder of the year should be welcome news to borrowers who are looking to purchase a home.”

Housing Inventory Outlook for May 2023

Low housing inventory has been a challenge since the 2008 housing crash when the construction of new homes plummeted. It still hasn’t fully recovered—and won’t in 2023.

Housing supply holding steady at near historic lows has propped up demand compared to other downturns, consequently sustaining higher home prices.

“Inventory is approximately 46% below the historical average dating back to 1999,” says Jack Macdowell, chief investment officer and co-founder at Palisades Group.

At the current sales pace, unsold inventory is unchanged from March at a 2.6-month supply, according to NAR. Though up from 2.0 months a year ago, supply is low by historical standards, especially in the face of pent-up demand.

With reportedly 85% of homeowners sitting on mortgage rates below 6%, industry experts have a gloomy outlook on when inventory will eventually normalize.

“We think that it is highly unlikely that the inventory problem will be resolved in 2023,” says Macdowell.

Housing Starts Forecast 2023

At the same time, there are positive signals in the homebuilding realm. Single-family construction starts rose for the second consecutive month, increasing 2.7% in March, and applications for building permits increased by 4.1% from the previous month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD.

The latest builder outlook data reflected optimism as well.

The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) that tracks builder sentiment ticked up a point, from 44 to 45. This is the fourth month-over-month increase following 12 consecutive months of declines.

Even so, builder confidence is still considered low—50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead. Nonetheless, these consecutive upticks signal a positive trend in new-home construction as the apparent demand for new homes—which surged 9.6% in March—is likely due to a retreat in mortgage rates and tight existing-home inventory.

Also, the Federal Reserve isn’t helping matters with its ongoing rate hikes. At a semiannual hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed questions about the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening policies in its efforts to rein in inflation.

In an exchange with Senator Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Powell acknowledged that raising the central bank interest rate increases borrowing costs for companies that develop new housing and makes financing and expanding production for suppliers more expensive. He also conceded that elevated mortgage rates discourage homeowners with low fixed-rate mortgages from selling their homes.

“Homeowners, homebuyers, lenders, as well as builders, are trying to adapt and predict interest rates, home prices, supply, demand and the potential for a Fed-induced recession,” says Macdowell. “As a result, builders may be reluctant to start new projects that would bring needed housing product to the market.”

Will the Housing Market Crash This Year?

Due, in part, to the ongoing inventory crunch keeping home prices elevated, many economists predict the housing market is more likely to correct itself from the double-digit percentage jumps in home prices we’ve seen over the past few years rather than crash.

The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index posted a negligible month-over-month national price growth reading of 0.2%, following seven consecutive months of declines. Even though year-over-year prices are higher, price appreciation has decelerated recently.

Nonetheless, experts say whether home prices rise or fall in the coming months will likely remain region-specific. For example, expect the steepest declines in areas that experienced big price booms during the pandemic, such as Austin, Texas; Phoenix; and West Coast metro areas.

“Home prices continue to rise in regions where jobs are being added and housing is relatively affordable,” said Yun. “However, the more expensive areas of the country are adjusting to lower prices.”

Additionally, other experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having positive equity in their homes. Consequently, the likelihood of a housing market crash is low.

“Homeowner equity is at the highest level it’s been in the past several decades, so homeowners have a lot of value in their home,” says Nicole Bachaud, an economist at Zillow.

In a housing market crash, you would typically see a 20% to 30% drop in home prices and a decline in home sales—far more than what’s currently happening. Another crash symptom that’s been missing is a jump in foreclosure activity.

“We assign a low(er) probability of a housing market crash in 2023, since a ‘crash’ would likely be the result of mortgage defaults, foreclosures and forced property liquidations,” says Macdowell.

However, the possibility of an economic downturn poses a concern.

“We think that the most significant risk to the near-term market (and housing market) outlook is the potential for a severe recession and/or prolonged stagflation,” says Macdowell.

Will There Be a Lot of Foreclosures in 2023?

Though still below pre-pandemic levels, foreclosures have been edging up since the expiration of the Covid-19 foreclosure moratorium in September 2021.

In the first quarter of 2023, foreclosures climbed 6% from the previous quarter and were up 22% from the first quarter of 2022, according to ATTOM, a property data provider. March foreclosures were up 10% from a year ago and 20% between January and February.

“This unfortunate trend (in foreclosure activity) can be attributed to a variety of factors, such as rising unemployment rates, foreclosure filings making their way through the pipeline after two years of government intervention and other ongoing economic challenges,” said Rob Barber, chief executive officer at ATTOM.

Even though foreclosures are on the rise, Barber noted that the significant equity many homeowners still have should help prevent increased levels of foreclosure activity.

When Should I Buy a Home in 2023?

Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.

Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down payment and interest rate.

Trying to predict what might happen this year is not the best homebuying strategy. “Buyers sitting on the sidelines today in anticipation of lower prices tomorrow may end up disappointed,” says Neda Navab, president of the U.S. region at Compass, a real estate tech company.

Navab expects home prices in the hotter markets during the past few years to decrease somewhat, but she doesn’t expect a widespread, national price decline like what followed the 2008 financial crisis.

Instead of waiting for much lower prices, experts suggest buying a home based on your budget and needs. If you find a home you love in an area you love, and it also fits your budget, then chances are it might be right for you. However, if you make too many sacrifices just to get a house, you may end up with buyer’s remorse, potentially forcing you to offload the house.

Tips for Buying in Today’s Housing Market

Even as prices soften, you may realize that the area where you want to buy a home is still out of reach, so it’s important to be flexible.

“If you badly want a house and can work remotely or switch jobs, moving to lower-priced housing markets is a good idea to consider,” says Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Millions of Americans have done that already.”

Also, get all your ducks in a row in advance—review your financial situation, gather required documents, shop multiple lenders and strengthen your credit score. That way, when you find your dream home, you’ll be in a better position to act fast in a tight market.

“Only the best prepared, with their financing lined up, a solid understanding of what they can afford, and constant checking of prices and listings will be successful in today’s highly-competitive market,” says Frick. “Know how much your monthly payment will be—complete with taxes—and how well that fits into your budget.”

Tips for Selling in Today’s Housing Market

Even as prices soften, you may realize that the area where you want to buy a home is still out of reach, so it’s important to be flexible.

“Only the best prepared, with their financing lined up, a solid understanding of what they can afford, and constant checking of prices and listings will be successful in today’s highly-competitive market,” says Frick. “Know how much your monthly payment will be–complete with taxes–and how well that fits into your budget.”

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The Key Word For 2023 “Preparation”

Preparation is the Key Word

For California Home Buyers to keep in mind to successfully compete in California’s 2023 Real Estate Market.

“Proper Preparation Promotes Peak Performance”

You are the key person in charge of obtaining Peak Performance Results in this still very competitive 2023 market. Think of your Realtor as your Performance Coach. Your Realtor Coach will do all she, or he can do to help you prepare to compete in this historic marketplace. They know that all the best opportunities are won by those home buyers that are Best Prepared.

Most home buyers start the process with mixed emotions ranging from happy excitement to feeling overwhelmed. Let’s face it, purchasing real estate is a big deal, and our homes are the most significant and expensive purchase that most of us will make in our lifetime.

Here are a few key tips to help 2023 homebuyers prepare for the adventure of purchasing property in the California Marketplace.

Start Gathering Your Key Documents.

If you plan to finance the purchase of your new home, you will need to start gathering key personal documents that loan professionals will need to help you qualify for your new mortgage. These documents include, but are not limited to, the following:

Personal Identification includes driver’s license, state identification cards, Social Security cards, work visas, etc. In today’s lending world, loan underwriters are required to verify the identity of all borrowers as part of the loan approval process.
Your Federal Tax Returns (State Returns are not used) and your W2s, or 1099s for the two most recent years. If self-employed, be prepared to provide business tax returns and additional financial statements, i.e., profit & loss, balance sheet, etc.
Your payroll/paycheck statements, pension statements, Social Security benefits cover the most recent 30 days from the date of your loan application.
Most recent mortgage statements and homeowner insurance policy for your current home. If you are renting, the loan underwriter will need contact information for your landlord or property management company.
Monthly Bank Statements for the two most recent months. These statements will be used to verify the source of funds for your down payment and the number of assets available to you to complete the purchase transaction.
Letters of explanation for any derogatory information that appears on your credit report. We all have ups and downs, so do not be afraid to share any information that may help the loan underwriter understand all the facts.
A list of your outstanding consumer debt completed with the name of the creditor and account numbers.

Make Lists:

Write out a list of the things that you want and a list of the features that you need in your new home. Please share this list with your agent so that they can better help you find what you are looking for. Update or add to your list as you think of things and share those changes with your agent.

Keep Notes:

Your agent will keep solid records of the homes you see. However, keeping your own notes as you go to “open houses” would be best. After each home, share what you liked and didn’t like with your agent. That will help narrow the search down for you. Selecting the right home is a learning process. As you visit more properties, you and your real estate agent will learn what areas of the community you prefer, and the features and qualities of a home that are most important to you.

Stay Positive:

One of the most essential pieces of advice for prospective home buyers is to stay positive. Even after finding the desired home, making an offer, and accepting it, and closing can often take longer than expected. Stay positive! If you’ve looked at several houses and still haven’t found what you want, stay calm and trust that your efforts and your agents will lead you to the right property.

Make a Wise Choice:

Your “best new friend” in finding your new home is the person you select to be your Realtor Coach. Your Realtor Coach is invaluable; they can help you navigate the process when you are unsure of what to do next. The Realtor Coach you select needs to be someone you can call, speak freely with, and ask questions without hesitation. Purchasing and financing real estate can be a daunting process. However, if you choose wisely, your Realtor Coach will work tirelessly to help make the process as simple and painless as possible.

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